Statistics:
-Both the World Bank and the United Nations say that, 1 to 2 billion humans are now malnourished, which indicates a combination of insufficient food, low incomes, and an inadequate distribution of food. (THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON FOOD SUPPLIES AND ENVIRONMENT.)
-According to this site, it is estimated that approximately one acre of land is lost due to urbanization and highway construction alone for every person added to the United States population. Meaning that only 0.6 acres of farmland would be available to grow food for each American in 2050, as opposed to the 1.8 acres per capita available today. (FOOD, LAND, POPULATION and the U.S. ECONOMY.)
-The world is finding itself nearing maximum capacity in not only space but also in many commodities. Oil is largely the primary commodity running short. We are experiencing the same situation with the world's mines. There is not a shortage of ore but we just can't affordably get at it. Essentially this means that there is only a limited supply available at affordable prices. The higher the cost of supplies the fewer people that can afford it; this will of course increase the supplies at unaffordable prices. The value of the US dollar has been declining steadily over the last few years. The US is now being outbid by other countries when trying to obtain commodities. China is leading the world in outbidding the US for needed commodities. (FOOD SHORTAGE LOOMING IN AMERICA'S FUTURE)
-According to the U.S Global Change Research Program, it stated that, Climate change has had an impact on American farmers, ranchers, rural land owners, and foresters, and will continue to do so, through its influence on production, distribution, and yields. (FOOD INGREDIENTS-YEAST, SWEETENERS, FOOD FIBERS, FLAVORS)
-"To some extent we are actually trying - and properly so - trying to eliminate poverty. Now as poverty is eliminated big changes in consumer demand occur." Climate change is expected to worsen the problem, reducing rainfall and affecting crop growth. Added to this, efforts to tackle climate change - by using biofuels instead of fossil fuels - are taking more land away from food production. (WARNINGS OVER FUTURE FOOD CRISIS)
"Food Shortage." United Nations University. Web. 04 Mar. 2010.
-Even when production shortfall is the primary cause of insufficient supply, the ecological and political reasons for production problems vary widely. They range from natural disasters such as drought, flood, or fungus, to political disasters such as civil conflict, to misguided economic policies such as price controls- all of which discourage production of essential foods.
-The numbers of people potentially supported by the global food supply depend heavily on the kind of diet people consume. The World Hunger Program calculates that global food supplies have been more than adequate, since the mid-1970s, to support the world's population on a vegetarian diet (table 3.1). But they would support only 74 per cent of the 1993 population on a diet where 15 per cent of calories come from animal foods (Uvin 1996). Only 56 per cent of the 1993 world population could have been provided with diets where 25 per cent of calories came from animal foods (Uvin 1996).
-Temperature and rainfall are critical elements determining when and how often crops can be sown. While some Asian countries are able to harvest three times in a single year, food production nearly halts during dry seasons in many tropical zones and during winter cold in temperate areas. Extremes or thresholds of heat, increasingly accompanied by high ultraviolet radiation, and of cold, especially early frosts or late thaws, can ruin harvests. They test the limits of growing seasons and moisture-temperature tolerances of particular crop varieties. These extremes will be modified by global climate change, which promises to transform regional cropping patterns. For the present, drought is the most widespread climatic threat to production, and is treated more extensively below.
-Although drought is often thought of as the precipitating cause of famine, because so many farmers in a single area experience crop failure simultaneously, drought does not lead to food shortage or its extreme manifestation - famine - if there are adequate carry-over stocks available, or if food is available through market or relief channels (Ravallion 1987).
-At the opposite end of the rainfall spectrum, too much rain can also impair agricultural production, especially where flooding is severe enough to kill crops by uprooting or submergence, but also where it simply slows growths or makes cultivation and harvesting extremely difficult. Even after harvest, flooding can be devastating when it occurs before crops have been safely stored (Good 1986) and leaves crops vulnerable to rot.
"Half the World's Population Faces Major Food Crisis by 2100, Science Study Finds - FSI Stanford." Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI Stanford). Web. 05 Mar. 2010.
-This site is quite opinionated and speaks mainly on the reasons why population is dwindling. Here’s a quote from the lead author David Battisti: "The stresses on global food production from temperature alone are going to be huge, and that doesn’t take into account water supplies stressed by the higher temperatures.”
-The crux of this article lays in these two quotes by Rosamond Naylor and David Battisti:
“I think what startled me the most is that when we looked at our historic examples, there were ways to address the problem within a given year." “People could always turn somewhere else to find food, but in the future there’s not going to be any place to turn unless we rethink our food supplies.”
-“When all the signs point in the same direction, and in this case it’s a bad direction, you pretty much know what’s going to happen,” Battisti said. “You are talking about hundreds of millions of additional people looking for food because they won’t be able to find it where they find it now.”
"Population Growth and the Food Crisis." FAO: FAO Home. Web. 04 Mar. 2010.
-The food crisis equation has three main components. First, life-styles, incomes and social organization determine levels of consumption. Second, the technologies in use determine both the extent to which human activities damage or sustain the environment and the amount of waste associated with a given level of consumption. Poverty may prevent the adoption of more appropriate technologies that could halt or slow down environmental degradation. These two factors determine the impact on individuals.
-Land fragmentation affects food production and is a direct result of rapid population growth in many poor countries. Often landholdings which are too small to provide a tolerable livelihood have been turned into part-time farms, with some household members (usually the women and children) staying at home to tend crops while others (often the men) migrate in search of wage employment.
-Sustainable development strategies which combat soil erosion and impoverishment, deforestation, falling agricultural output, and poor water management should also be implemented, as should rural agricultural extension schemes which provide credit, seeds, fertilizers and advice to poorer farmers, regardless of whether they are men or women. Finally, support must be given to research on the integration of traditional and emerging technologies for food production
-“AJ Mc Michael.” Global Environmental Change and Human Population Health: A Conceptual and Scientific Challenge for Epidemiology." Print.
-When reading through this article, a statement that stuck with me because of all the various factors that affect population through health risks was this: "The spectrum of health-endangering environmental problems has become wider, and potentially much more serious, than was evident two decades ago. It includes greenhouse-related climate change, thinning of stratospheric ozone, land degradation and topsoil loss, depletion of groundwater, reduction in genetic and ecosystem diversity and acidification of waterways and soils."
- My thoughts: Population is constantly affected by one of these things, whether it's playing a role at a different point in time around the world or simply growing into a bigger problem. Throughout the course of time, these problems trace back to how much the earth can hold also known as the earth's carrying capacity. It's also stated by the UN demographers that by 2030 we will reach 9 billion people, moving up to 11-12 billion in the following century. Out of this major increase, 90% of it will occur in poor third world countries where life is hard enough to sustain. With these statistics in mind, it seems natural that we'd transform some of our selfish ways, but like I said before unless it affects our lives personally major change won't take place.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-change-water-en.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/water/quality.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/water/availability.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/water/
http://fsi.stanford.edu/news/half_the_worlds_population_faces_major_food_crisis_by_2100_science_study_finds_20090108/
Melillo, Jerry M., A. David McGuire, David W. Kicklighter, Berrien Moore III, Charles J. Vorosmarty, and Annette L. Schloss. "Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production." Nature 363 (1993): 234-40.
This article showed a lot of facts about how the climate change will affect the growth of plants. I think that this source will be helpful in determining what will happen in the senior project. Below were the most helpful facts from the article that I believe that I can use. The summary of the information is the following: climate change will affect the weather which in turn will affect the NPP of the plants, it is predicted that there will be varied affects throughout the plant’s regions.
Quotes:
“Most climate models predict that the buildup of these gases is likely to lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 C to 4.5 C and changes in precipitation and cloud patterns over the next century.”
“It is of fundamental importance to humans because the largest portion of our food supply is from productivity of plant life on land, as is wood for construction and fuel.”
“…climate changes are predicted to vary from place to place...”
“… process-based models describe how important ecosystem processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition and nutrient cycling interact to affect the net primary production (NPP).”
“Among studies that have provided adequate water and nutrients to experimental plants, the range in the response of plant growth to doubled CO2 is between 24% and 50%.”
“The source for the global data sets on climate (air temperature, precipitation and cloudiness), elevation and soil texture are described elsewhere; the climate data represents long-term averages.”
“Hydrological inputs for TEM were determined with a water balance model that uses the climate, elevation, soils and vegetation data.”
“Over half of the global annual NPP occurs in the tropics between the latitudes of 22.5 S and 22.5 N. Most of this productivity is attributable to tropical evergreen forest which accounts for 35.9% of the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere, although it covers only 13.7% of the terrestrial land surface.”
“… least productive vegetation types include polar desert, tundra, and desert, which collectively account for 3.0% of terrestrial NPP and cover 16.7% of the terrestrial land area.”
“…among vegetation types and range from no increase for some northern ecosystems to increases of 50%...”
“…tropical evergreen forest may decrease PAR enough to decrease NPP. The largest NPP decrease for tropical… predicts the largest increase in mean annual cloudiness (9.8%).”
“…contemporary climate at 312.5 p.p.m.v. CO2, the global responses to changes in both CO2 and climate do not vary substantially among the GCM climates with increases ranging between 20% and 26.1%.”
“…predicts a decrease of 7% in annual precipitation for temperate mixed forest in the region…”
Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Martin L. Parry. "Potential impact of climate change on world food supply." Nature 367 (1994): 133-38.
This article discussed how the climate change would affect the world’s food supply. It stated that overall, developed countries would see an increase and benefit from the climate change, while undeveloped won’t. It also discussed the regions of the world that would benefit which is at higher latitudes while the lower latitudes would be affecting negatively. I think that this article definitely was very useful and has many facts that I hope to implement in my senior project.
Quotes:
“…doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a small decrease in global crop production.”
“…the important role of international trade in the adjustment of the world food system to climate change-induced changes in crop yields.”
“…world food trade model to simulate the economic consequences of these potential changes in crop yields… estimate changes in world food prices and in the number of people at risk of hunger in developing countries.”
“…appears to be a large disparity in agricultural vulnerability to climate change between developed and developing countries.”
“…crop growth and water use have been shown to benefit from increase levels of CO2… these conditions are assumed to occur in 2060… which the simulated climate had warmed to the effective doubled CO2 level of ~4 C by 2060.”
“When climate change is considered without direct CO2 effects on crop growth and water use, averaged national crop yields declined everywhere, although reductions were less at middle and high latitudes… simulations with direct CO2 effects, yields were positive at middle and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes…”
“Food availability, in turn, depends on income and price levels.”
“The largest negative changes occur in developing regions, though the extent of decreased productions varies greatly by country depending on the projected climate. By contrast, in developed countries, production is estimated to increase…”
“Climate change scenarios near the high end of the IPCC range of doubled-CO2 warming exerted a slight-to-moderate negative effect on simulated world cereal production, even when the beneficial direct effects of CO2, farm-level adaptations and future technological yield improvements were taken into account…”
“…production in the developed world benefited from climate change, production in developing nations declined.”
“Thus, while come countries in the temperate zones may reap some benefit from climate change, many countries in the tropical and subtropical zones appear more vulnerable to the potential impacts of global warming…”
R1.R2
“…water quality has become a very big issue… tremendous growth of the Nation’s population…”
"Water Resources | Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 04 Mar. 2010.
* “All regions of the world show an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems.”
* “The future effects of climate change on water resources in the U.S. and other parts of the world will depend on trends in both climatic and non-climatic factors.”
* “Water resources in the United States are heavily managed and supplies are scarce in some regions of the country.”
* “Due to complex interactions of changes in the hydrologic cycle with global circulation patterns and local weather patterns, an increase in energy in the hydrologic cycle does not necessarily translate into an increase in precipitation in all geographic regions. It is difficult to predict future changes in regional precipitation patterns. Predicting regional changes in streamflow and groundwater recharge due to climate change also remains challenging, particularly because of the uncertainty in regional projections of how precipitation may change (IPCC, 2007).”
References: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, Martin L., Canziani, Osvaldo F., Palutikof, Jean P., van der Linden, Paul J., and Hanson, Clair E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1000 pp.
* “Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and snowmelt can have impacts on water availability. Temperature is predicted to rise in most areas, but is generally expected to increase more in inland areas and at higher latitudes. Higher temperatures will increase loss of water through evaporation. The net impact on water supplies will depend on changes in precipitation (including changes in the total amount, form, and seasonal timing of precipitation). Generally speaking, in areas where precipitation increases sufficiently, net water supplies may not be affected or they may even increase. In other areas where precipitation remains the same or decreases, net water supplies would decrease. Where water supplies decrease, there is also likely to be an increase in demand, which could be particularly significant for agriculture (the largest consumer of water) and also for municipal, industrial and other uses.”
* “Higher water temperatures and changes in the timing, intensity, and duration of precipitation can affect water quality. Higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen levels, which can have an effect on aquatic life. Where streamflow and lake levels fall, there will be less dilution of pollutants; however, increased frequency and intensity of rainfall will produce more pollution and sedimentation due to runoff (IPCC, 2007).”
* “Flood magnitudes and frequencies will very likely increase in most regions — mainly a result of increased precipitation intensity and variability — and increasing temperatures are expected to intensify the climate's hydrologic cycle and melt snowpacks more rapidly (IPCC, 2007). Flooding can affect water quality, as large volumes of water can transport contaminants into water bodies and also overload storm and wastewater systems. Higher temperatures, particularly in the summer, earlier snowmelt, and potential decreases in summer precipitation could increase risk of drought. The frequency and intensity of floods and droughts could increase, even in the same areas.”
* “”
R2.S2. (Choices: The magazine for food, farm and resource issues)
* “Climate change will affect water resources through its impact on the quantity, variability, timing, form, and intensity of precipitation.”
* “Models of climate change (GCMs) predict the U.S. annual-mean temperatures to generally rise by 2degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years, with greater increases in the northern regions (5 degrees Celsius), and northern Alaska (10 degrees Celsius).”
* “Despite predictions of increased precipitation in most regions, net decreases in water availability are expected in those areas, due to offsetting increases in evaporation.”
* “Water shortages will cause the price of water to rise…”
* “… important effect of the water resource impacts discussed… is the potential for more frequent and intense interstate and international water allocation conflicts.”
* “… U.S. precipitation, which increased by 5 to 10% over the 20th century, is predicted to continue to increase overall.”
* “A 20% decrease in summer precipitation, for example, is projected for southwestern regions, and a general decrease in summer precipitation is projected for southern areas.”
* “… global climate change that have important implications for water resources include increased evaporation rates, a higher proportion of precipitation received as rain, rather than snow, earlier and shorter runoff seasons, increase water temperature and decreased water quality in both inland and coastal areas.”
* “Increased evaporation rates are expected to reduce to reduce water supplies in many regions. The greatest deficits are expected to occur in the summer, leading to decreased soil moisture levels and more frequent and severe agricultural drought.”
* “Agricultural producers and urban areas are particularly vulnerable, as evidenced by recent prolonged droughts in the western and southern United States, which are estimated to have caused over $6 billion in damages to the agricultural and municipal sectors. Such droughts also impose costs in terms of wildfires, both in terms of control costs and lost timber and related resources.”
* “Water users will eventually adapt to more frequent and severe drought droughts, in part shifting limited water supplies towards higher-value uses. Such shifts could be from low to high value crops, or from agricultural and industrial to environmental and municipal uses.”
* “Economic losses will be larger during this period of delay, as compared to a world with instantaneous adjustment… uncertainty surrounding future climate.”
* “Rising surface temperatures are expected to increase the proportion of winter precipitation received as rain, with a declining proportion arriving in the form of snow. Snow pack levels are also expected to form later in the winter accumulate in smaller quantities, and melt earlier in the season, leading to reduced summer flows. Such shifts in the form of timing of precipitation and runoff, specifically in snow-fed basins, are likely to cause more frequent summer droughts… changes are already taking place in the western United States.”
R2.S3. (Overseas Development Institute)
“The impacts of climate change- sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, floods and rainfall variation- could, by 2080, push another 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion.”
“Food security is defined as a ‘situation […] when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to insuffiecent, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.’ ”
“In addition to farming areas, many of the world’s rangelands are in semi-arid areas and susceptible to water deficits; any further in water resources will greatly impact carrying capacity.”
“Modification of irrigation techniques, including amount, time or technology (e.g. drip irrigation systems)”
“Climate change and increased water demand for agriculture in future decades is anticipated to be an added challenge to trans-boundary framework agreements, increasing the potential for conflict.”
Melillo, Jerry M., A. David McGuire, David W. Kicklighter, Berrien Moore III, Charles J. Vorosmarty, and Annette L. Schloss. "Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production." Nature 363 (1993): 234-40.
“Most climate models predict that the buildup of these gases is likely to lead to surface air temperature rises of 1.5 C to 4.5 C and changes in precipitation and cloud patterns over the next century.”
“It is of fundamental importance to humans because the largest portion of our food supply is from productivity of plant life on land, as is wood for construction and fuel.”
“…climate changes are predicted to vary from place to place...”
“… process-based models describe how important ecosystem processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition and nutrient cycling interact to affect the net primary production (NPP).”
“Among studies that have provided adequate water and nutrients to experimental plants, the range in the response of plant growth to doubled CO2 is between 24% and 50%.”
“The source for the global data sets on climate (air temperature, precipitation and cloudiness), elevation and soil texture are described elsewhere; the climate data represents long-term averages.”
“Hydrological inputs for TEM were determined with a water balance model that uses the climate, elevation, soils and vegetation data.”
“Over half of the global annual NPP occurs in the tropics between the latitudes of 22.5 S and 22.5 N. Most of this productivity is attributable to tropical evergreen forest which accounts for 35.9% of the net exchange of CO2 between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere, although it covers only 13.7% of the terrestrial land surface.”
“… least productive vegetation types include polar desert, tundra, and desert, which collectively account for 3.0% of terrestrial NPP and cover 16.7% of the terrestrial land area.”
“…among vegetation types and range from no increase for some northern ecosystems to increases of 50%...”
“…tropical evergreen forest may decrease PAR enough to decrease NPP. The largest NPP decrease for tropical… predicts the largest increase in mean annual cloudiness (9.8%).”
“…contemporary climate at 312.5 p.p.m.v. CO2, the global responses to changes in both CO2 and climate do not vary substantially among the GCM climates with increases ranging between 20% and 26.1%.”
“…predicts a decrease of 7% in annual precipitation for temperate mixed forest in the region…”
Both the World Bank and the United Nations say that, “1 to 2 billion humans are now malnourished, which indicates a combination of insufficient food, low incomes, and an inadequate distribution of food.” (THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON FOOD SUPPLIES AND ENVIRONMENT. )
According to this site, it is estimated that approximately one acre of land is lost due to urbanization and highway construction alone for every person added to the United States population. Meaning that only 0.6 acres of farmland would be available to grow food for each American in 2050, as opposed to the 1.8 acres per capita available today. (FOOD, LAND, POPULATION and the U.S. ECONOMY. )
The world is finding itself nearing maximum capacity in not only space but also in many commodities. Oil is a largely the primary commodity running short. We are experiencing the same situation with the world's mines. There is not a shortage of ore but we just can't affordably get at it. Essentially this means that there is only a limited supply available at affordable prices. The higher the cost of supplies the fewer people that can afford it; this will of course increase the supplies at unaffordable prices. The value of the US dollar has been declining steadily over the last few years. The US is now being outbid by other countries when trying to obtain commodities. China is leading the world in outbidding the US for needed commodities. (Food shortage looming in America's Future)
According to the U.S Global Change Research Program, it stated that, “Climate change has had an impact on American farmers, ranchers, rural land owners, and foresters, and will continue to do so, through its influence on production, distribution, and yields.” (Food Ingredients - Yeast, Sweeteners, Food fibers, Flavors )
"To some extent we are actually trying - and properly so - trying to eliminate poverty. Now as poverty is eliminated big changes in consumer demand occur."
“Climate change is expected to worsen the problem, reducing rainfall and affecting crop growth. Added to this, efforts to tackle climate change - by using biofuels instead of fossil fuels - are taking more land away from food production.” (Warnings over future food crisis)
Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Martin L. Parry. "Potential impact of climate change on world food supply." Nature 367 (1994): 133-38.
“…doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a small decrease in global crop production.”
“…the important role of international trade in the adjustment of the world food system to climate change-induced changes in crop yields.”
“…world food trade model to simulate the economic consequences of these potential changes in crop yields… estimate changes in world food prices and in the number of people at risk of hunger in developing countries.”
“…appears to be a large disparity in agricultural vulnerability to climate change between developed and developing countries.”
“…crop growth and water use have been shown to benefit from increase levels of CO2… these conditions are assumed to occur in 2060… which the simulated climate had warmed to the effective doubled CO2 level of ~4 C by 2060.”
“When climate change is considered without direct CO2 effects on crop growth and water use, averaged national crop yields declined everywhere, although reductions were less at middle and high latitudes… simulations with direct CO2 effects, yields were positive at middle and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes…”
“Food availability, in turn, depends on income and price levels.”
“The largest negative changes occur in developing regions, though the extent of decreased productions varies greatly by country depending on the projected climate. By contrast, in developed countries, production is estimated to increase…”
“Climate change scenarios near the high end of the IPCC range of doubled-CO2 warming exerted a slight-to-moderate negative effect on simulated world cereal production, even when the beneficial direct effects of CO2, farm-level adaptations and future technological yield improvements were taken into account…”
“…production in the developed world benefited from climate change, production in developing nations declined.”
“Thus, while come countries in the temperate zones may reap some benefit from climate change, many countries in the tropical and subtropical zones appear more vulnerable to the potential impacts of global warming…”
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